The Chicago Bears visit the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, October 11, 2026, for a Week 5 NFC North matchup at Lambeau Field. Chicago arrives at 3–1 after a 23–12 win over the New York Jets, while Green Bay is 2–2 after losing 39–22 to Minnesota.
Game Details
- Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026
- Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. Central Time, 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time
- Venue: Lambeau Field
The date and kickoff time are listed by the Bears’ official schedule and the NFL schedule.
Latest Verified Odds
DraftKings odds published by CBS Sports and updated October 10, 2026, list Chicago as a three-point road favorite. The total is 45.5 points, with the Bears at –142 on the moneyline and the Packers at +136.
- Spread: Bears –3
- Moneyline: Bears –142; Packers +136
- Total: 45.5
These are the latest timestamped DraftKings numbers available in the supplied research. Other cited books had Chicago favored by between one and 1.5 points earlier in the week, illustrating how much the market has moved. Odds can continue to change before kickoff, so readers should verify the current line directly with the sportsbook. The October 10 numbers are available through CBS Sports.
Injuries and Player Availability
Chicago’s quarterback situation carries the most uncertainty. According to the Bears’ official game preview, Caleb Williams is questionable after returning to limited practice following a hamstring injury. Tyson Bagent is slated to start again. That makes Bagent the expected starter, although Williams’ questionable designation means his availability has not been definitively ruled out.
Running back Kyle Monangai is confirmed out with a toe injury. The news is better along the offensive line: Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson and Darnell Wright practiced fully Friday and carried no game designation.
The supplied research does not contain a consolidated official Packers injury report. Footballguys lists Green Bay running back D’Andre Swift as questionable, but that is an unofficial report and should not be treated as confirmation of his final status. The NFL injury page should be checked closer to kickoff for updates.
Matchup Factors
Chicago’s Control of the Ball
The Bears’ official preview says Chicago leads the NFL in total offense at 429.0 yards per game, rushing offense at 196.3 yards per game and average time of possession at 36:35. Those strengths complement one another: an effective running game creates manageable downs and allows Chicago to keep its defense rested.
Green Bay has been moving in the opposite direction on the ground. The Packers are averaging 58.0 rushing yards per game, last in the league, with the Bears’ preview attributing the decline to Josh Jacobs’ absence. If Green Bay remains one-dimensional, Chicago should have another opportunity to dictate the pace.
Third Downs Could Separate the Teams
Chicago ranks second in the NFL by allowing opponents to convert only 23.7% of their third downs. The Bears held Minnesota, Philadelphia and the Jets to a combined 17.2% conversion rate. That defense, paired with Chicago’s time-of-possession advantage, offers a clear path to controlling the number of possessions at Lambeau Field.
Bagent’s Momentum Versus Love’s History
Bagent’s second start produced a team performance featuring franchise highs in first downs, total yards with 492 and time of possession against the Jets. Repeating that efficiency on the road against a divisional rival is a different challenge, however.
Jordan Love is the strongest counterargument to Chicago’s statistical edges. According to the Bears’ preview, Love’s 113.2 career passer rating against Chicago is his best against any opponent, and his 13 touchdown passes versus the Bears are also his most against one team. Green Bay may not need a balanced offense if Love continues to exploit this matchup.
Prediction
Prediction: Bears to win.
Chicago has the better current record and the more convincing profile on both sides of the ball. Its league-leading rushing production can pressure Green Bay’s struggling ground game, while the Bears’ third-down defense should give Bagent and the offense additional chances. Chicago’s restored offensive line also helps offset the uncertainty at quarterback.
The strongest reason this prediction could be wrong is Love. His career success against the Bears is substantial, and Bagent remains an inexperienced starter entering a difficult road environment. Chicago is the straight-up choice, but the quarterback uncertainty makes the three-point spread less appealing than the game’s broader matchup advantages might suggest.
